芳烃橡胶早报-20251022

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: Near - term TA partial units increased load,开工 slightly increased, polyester load remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated, basis weakened, and spot processing fees remained low. PX domestic operation rate declined, overseas partial maintenance took place, PXN widened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were stable, and the US - Asia aromatics spread widened. Later, polyester showed no unexpected performance, TA gradually entered the inventory accumulation stage, but considering the long - term low processing fees, additional maintenance should be noted. With limited far - month production capacity expansion, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - MEG: Near - term domestic maintenance and restart coexisted, the load still slightly increased, overseas maintenance took place, arrivals were stable but shipments were weak, and port inventory continued to slightly accumulate at the beginning of next week. The basis was stable, and coal - based benefits and ratios further shrank. Later, EG's existing operation rate returned to a relatively high level, and with new unit commissioning, it entered a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, after the weakening of coal - based benefits and ratios, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Considering the recent strengthening of coal prices, short - put opportunities near the coal - based cost should be noted [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: Near - term units operated stably, the operation rate remained at 94.3%, sales improved month - on - month, and inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increased, both raw material and finished product inventories decreased, and benefits slightly improved. Later, the operation rate and finished product inventory of polyester yarn did not significantly increase. Staple fiber's exports maintained high growth, the operation rate remained high due to good spot benefits, the overall inventory pressure was limited, and the processing fee on the futures market was not high. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber: The main contradiction was that the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber remained stable while rainfall affected tapping. The strategy was to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From October 15 to 21, crude oil increased by 0.3, PTA spot increased by 5, POY 150D/48F decreased by 50, naphtha cracking spread increased by 0.00, PX processing margin increased by 0.0, PTA processing margin remained unchanged, polyester gross margin decreased by 46, PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 2 [2]. - Market Situation: Near - term TA partial units increased load, polyester load was stable, inventory slightly accumulated, basis weakened, and spot processing fees were low. PX domestic operation rate declined, overseas partial maintenance took place, PXN widened, and the US - Asia aromatics spread widened [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From October 15 to 21, Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, MEG inner - market price decreased by 25, MEG coal - based profit decreased by 25, and other indicators remained unchanged [2]. - Market Situation: Near - term domestic maintenance and restart coexisted, the load slightly increased, overseas maintenance took place, port inventory slightly accumulated, basis was stable, and coal - based benefits and ratios further shrank [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From October 15 to 21, 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 15, low - melting - point staple fiber remained unchanged, and other prices and margins had corresponding changes. The operation rate remained at 94.3%, and the short - fiber profit remained unchanged while the pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 15 [2]. - Market Situation: Near - term units operated stably, sales improved, inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increased, both raw material and finished product inventories decreased, and benefits slightly improved [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price Changes: From October 15 to 21, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 40, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed rubber increased by 30, and other prices also had different degrees of increase. The difference between rubber types and various margins also had corresponding changes [2]. - Market Situation: The main contradiction was the stable and relatively low national explicit inventory and the impact of rainfall on tapping while the Thai cup lump rubber price remained stable. The strategy was to wait and see [2]. Styrene - Price and Margin Changes: From October 15 to 21, ethylene remained unchanged, pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, pure benzene (East China) decreased by 100, styrene (CFR China) increased by 10, and other prices and margins had corresponding changes. The domestic profit of EPS decreased by 75, and the domestic profit of PS decreased by 75 [5].