燃料油早报-20251022

Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level. The near-month spread weakened, the basis weakened month-on-month, the EW spread continued to weaken, the high-sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal and external prices fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low-sulfur cracking weakened month-on-month but was at a historical low year-on-year, the month spread weakened slightly, the LU internal and external prices fell to 7 - 8 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis stabilized in the second half of the week [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, reaching a historical high year-on-year. The floating storage stabilized after destocking, also at a high level year-on-year. The ARA residue inventory increased slightly, at a historical low for the same period. The EIA residue inventory increased slightly at a low level. Fujairah's inventory increased month-on-month, at a low level year-on-year. The high-sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly this week [6]. - Recently, the high-sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened. The cracking is supported by raw material procurement, and the short-term downside space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern. The FU internal and external prices will be viewed in the near-term range, and the 01 contract is bearish at the end. This week, the LU market was still weak. In the fourth quarter, the overseas low-sulfur market is in a pattern of shorting on rallies. Pay attention to the quota usage for internal and external trading [6]. Group 2: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 377.19 | 374.02 | 367.92 | 365.63 | 366.59 | 0.96 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 401.89 | 398.34 | 393.96 | 394.21 | 397.20 | 2.99 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.37 | -2.65 | -2.92 | -3.00 | -3.30 | -0.30 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 613.54 | 617.89 | 607.89 | 614.83 | 617.83 | 3.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -211.65 | -219.55 | -213.93 | -220.62 | -220.63 | -0.01 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.69 | 24.14 | 22.57 | 23.69 | 23.78 | 0.09 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 24.70 | 24.32 | 26.04 | 28.58 | 30.61 | 2.03 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 369.25 | 370.01 | 359.76 | 362.82 | 363.59 | 0.77 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 376.00 | 378.01 | 369.96 | 370.44 | 372.42 | 1.98 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 436.14 | 434.16 | 420.01 | 420.94 | 425.95 | 5.01 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 83.06 | 82.66 | 80.60 | 82.11 | 82.70 | 0.59 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.87 | -3.70 | -3.71 | -3.57 | -3.77 | -0.20 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -178.50 | -177.52 | -176.43 | -186.67 | -186.03 | 0.64 | [3][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 368.34 | 369.96 | 361.29 | - | 361.52 | - | | FOB VLSFO | 432.14 | 430.47 | 421.95 | - | 421.67 | - | | 380 Basis | -0.75 | -0.50 | -0.65 | - | -1.00 | - | | High - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.9 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 0.6 | | Low - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 6.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | -0.6 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2683 | 2694 | 2627 | 2646 | 2647 | 1 | | FU 05 | 2653 | 2658 | 2600 | 2616 | 2612 | -4 | | FU 09 | 2600 | 2608 | 2560 | 2575 | 2566 | -9 | | FU 01 - 05 | 30 | 36 | 27 | 30 | 35 | 5 | | FU 05 - 09 | 53 | 50 | 40 | 41 | 46 | 5 | | FU 09 - 01 | -83 | -86 | -67 | -71 | -81 | -10 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3159 | 3158 | 3064 | 3081 | 3070 | -11 | | LU 05 | 3161 | 3172 | 3099 | 3117 | 3093 | -24 | | LU 09 | 3160 | 3183 | 3110 | 3139 | 3105 | -34 | | LU 01 - 05 | -2 | -14 | -35 | -36 | -23 | 13 | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 | -11 | -11 | -22 | -12 | 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 1 | 25 | 46 | 58 | 35 | -23 | [5]