建信期货国债日报-20251022

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In October, the bond market entered a window period where risks were gradually cleared after negative factors materialized. The market stabilized, but lacked a clear trigger for a counter - attack in the form of monetary easing. The Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The domestic economic fundamentals have been weakening since the end of Q2. Although exports remain resilient, domestic demand is still weak, making policy stimulus necessary. The orientation of loose monetary and fiscal policies remains unchanged, but short - term monetary easing is difficult to implement. The bond market lacks direct positive stimuli and is also affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, so investors need to wait patiently for a counter - attack opportunity [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Bond market sentiment improved in the afternoon, with all treasury bond futures rising slightly [8] - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds mostly declined slightly, with changes in the medium and long - term mostly within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.762%, down 0.6bp [9] - Funding Market: The funding situation was stable. There were 9.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 15.95 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 6.85 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined slightly, indicating stable funds. Short - term funding rates fluctuated slightly, with the overnight weighted inter - bank deposit rate fluctuating around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rising 1bp to 1.4433%, and the medium - to - long - term funds remaining stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose 1bp to 1.66% [10] - Conclusion: Wait patiently for the bond market's counter - attack opportunity [11][12] 2. Industry News - Sino - US Trade: On the morning of October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of consultations soon. US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing some tariff policies [13] - Monetary Policy: Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [14] - Financial Forum: The opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference is scheduled for the afternoon of October 27. The central bank will release a series of financial standards during the forum [14] - Economic Data: China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 was 101.5036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices [14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Includes information on the trading data of treasury bond futures contracts, cross - period spreads of main contracts, cross - variety spreads, and the trend of main contracts [6][15][16] - Money Market: Involves data such as the SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trend, and inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates [29][33] - Derivatives Market: Covers the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve [35]