建信期货工业硅日报-20251022

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,505 yuan/ton, down 0.93%. The trading volume was 188,642 lots, and the open interest was 107,518 lots, a net decrease of 6,718 lots [4]. - Spot prices are stable. Under profitable conditions, enterprises have insufficient willingness to cut production actively, and the demand side lacks growth momentum. The supply side shows that production cuts are imminent in the southwest region, while production in the northwest region continues to increase. The weekly output in the third week of October was as high as 97,000 tons. The monthly demand for polysilicon is stable. If the industry reaches a new consensus on further production cuts, it will be negative for the demand side of industrial silicon. The demand for organic silicon is 120,000 tons, and the demand for exports and alloys is also 120,000 tons. The market lacks inventory - clearing drivers, and there is a lack of specific policy follow - up in the industrial silicon industry. In the fourth quarter, the marginal change in the industry is that the southwest production area will enter the dry season, with rising electricity prices increasing costs and seasonal active production cuts. The high - end of the current price has loosened, and the market improvement lacks drivers. The short - term downward trend has not ended, and it may test the lower - range support again [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices oscillated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,505 yuan/ton, down 0.93%, with a trading volume of 188,642 lots and an open interest of 107,518 lots, a net decrease of 6,718 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price range of 553 is 8,800 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 is 9,550 - 9,950 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Spot prices are stable. Enterprises have low willingness to cut production under profitable conditions, and demand lacks growth momentum. Supply: production cuts in the southwest are coming, while production in the northwest is increasing. The weekly output in the third week of October was 97,000 tons. Polysilicon demand is stable monthly. If further production cuts are agreed, it will be negative for demand. Organic silicon demand is 120,000 tons, and export and alloy demand is 120,000 tons. There is no inventory - clearing driver, and no specific policies. In Q4, the southwest will enter the dry season, with higher costs and seasonal production cuts. The high - end of the price has weakened, and the short - term downward trend may continue [5]. 3.4 Market News - On October 21, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 48,851 lots, a net decrease of 452 lots from the previous trading day. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year in real terms. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.64% in September. From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year. From January to September, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% in September [6].