建信期货多晶硅日报-20251022

Report Date - The report date is October 22, 2025 [2] Market Performance - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the PS2512 contract was 53,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. The trading volume was 56,591 lots, and the open interest was 79,358 lots, with a net reduction of 435 lots [4] Spot Price - The transaction price range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The basis of the PS2512 contract was 4,000 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The expected production of polycrystalline silicon in October is not less than 130,000 tons, an increase of more than 30,000 tons compared to the monthly production before the anti-involution policy (June). The current production level can meet the terminal demand of about 63GW. The monthly expected production of silicon wafers and battery cells is 60.12GW and 47GW respectively, while the terminal demand has shrunk to about 10GW. With the export demand remaining at about 40GW, the pressure in the industrial chain will be transmitted from the bottom up. The weak fundamentals will drag down the continuous rise of prices, but the policy-driven factor takes precedence over the fundamentals. There is policy support for the bottom of the spot price, and the market also has positive expectations for storage or increased production cuts. Therefore, the spot price remains stagnant, and the futures price fluctuates widely within the current range. During the period when funds are sensitive to news, market rumors need to be treated with caution [4] Market News - On October 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 9,290 lots, a decrease of 140 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - From January to August, the cumulative new addition was 230.61GW, a year-on-year increase of 65%. However, the new addition in August was only 7.36GW, a year-on-year decrease of 55% and a month-on-month decrease of 33% [5] - In September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 6.5% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.64% compared to the previous month. From January to September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% [5] - On October 16, there were rumors that a polycrystalline silicon storage platform had been established, with the platform company's industrial and commercial registration completed (named "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd.") and the co-managed account opened. However, a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5]