建信期货生猪日报-20251022

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the demand elasticity of the 2601 contract remains. Driven by the spot market, it may rebound. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of second - round fattening purchases in the later stage [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 21st, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest was 12,315 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,235 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 593 lots to 290,204 lots [8] - Spot: On the 21st, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 11.49 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In October, the planned live pig出栏量 of sample enterprises increased by 5.14% compared with the actual出栏量 in September. The出栏量 may continue to increase significantly, and the supply pressure remains high. The average slaughter weight increases seasonally. In the long term, the live pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year [9] - Demand: Currently, due to low meat - making costs, an expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs, and low pen utilization rates, the enthusiasm for second - round fattening is high, which diverts part of the supply. As the weather in the south turns cold rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, with a slight increase in the operating rate and slaughter volume [9] Operation Suggestions - Spot: The supply and demand of live pigs have both increased, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. However, currently driven by the active demand for second - round fattening, the supply has decreased temporarily, and the spot price continues to fluctuate and rebound [9] - Futures: The live pig supply before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity and may rebound driven by the spot market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of second - round fattening purchases in the later stage [9] Group 5: Industry News - On October 16, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 188.5 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 432.2 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 112 yuan/head [10][12] Group 6: Data Overview - On the week of October 16, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [14] - On the week of October 16, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [14] - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [14] - As of the week of October 16, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a weekly decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a monthly decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [14] - On the week of October 16, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The enterprise operating rate fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise operation increased slowly [14]