广发期货《有色》日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak with downward - trending futures prices. Supply pressure persists, while demand is sluggish. Short - term spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices maintained a high - level oscillation. The market trading atmosphere was weak. With a stable supply and resilient demand, short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [1]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in range oscillation. Cost support was prominent. With supply constraints and mild demand recovery, short - term ADC12 prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated. Supply is abundant, and the second - half production increase of domestic zinc smelters is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [6]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated. Macro factors and supply shortages support prices, while high prices suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 84000 - 85000 support level [8]. Tin - Tin prices rebounded. Supply is tight, while demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese supply. If supply recovers well, prices may weaken; otherwise, they will likely oscillate at a high level [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices rose slightly. Macro risks increased, with cost support but inventory pressure. The mid - term supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Macro factors are favorable, but demand is weak, and supply pressure exists. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated narrowly. After entering the peak season, supply - demand gaps remain. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, with the main contract in the range of 75000 - 78000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.19% to 20970 yuan/ton, while alumina prices in various regions declined [1]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.32% to 21940 yuan/ton [6]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.12% to 85730 yuan/ton [8]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin rose 0.46% to 281300 yuan/ton [10]. - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton [12]. - Stainless Steel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton, and 304/2B stainless steel prices increased slightly [12][15]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.14% to 74100 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - Aluminum: In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [1]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [3]. - Zinc: In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [6]. - Copper: In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [8]. - Tin: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 tons [10]. - Nickel: In September, China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 tons [12]. - Stainless Steel: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and imports increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [17].