PTA、MEG早报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis is expected to have limited downside as new device production nears, approaching risk - free arbitrage, and with some mainstream PTA suppliers reducing device loads. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. - For MEG, although there is some replenishment demand at low prices, the fundamental pattern remains weak with obvious oversupply in the long - term. The price is expected to run weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent polyester loads and device changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PTA Daily View - Fundamentals: On the previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. Different delivery periods had different transaction price ranges and basis levels. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 88 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4325, the 01 - contract basis is - 89, and the market is at a premium, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period, showing a bullish situation [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [6]. - Expectation: With new device production imminent, the spot basis will continue to weaken, but the downside is limited. The absolute price will follow the cost side in the short term [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - Fundamentals: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price was adjusted at a low level. The night - session was weak, and low - level buying increased. The morning session fluctuated upward, and the afternoon session weakened slightly. The foreign market price also fluctuated at a low level [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4090, the 01 - contract basis is 86, and the market is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.5 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous period, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Expectation: Although there is some buying support at low prices, the fundamental pattern is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Before the holiday, due to increased demand and rising oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The inventory of POY and FDY decreased rapidly, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable [9]. - Negative Factors: The 360 - million - ton load of Yisheng New Materials was fully increased, and the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices were also increased [10]. 3.4 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [11]. 3.5 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents PTA's production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.6 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays ethylene glycol's production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [13].