大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the plastics and PP main contracts expected to fluctuate weakly today. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins is limited. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations is uncertain, and oil prices are continuously falling [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, the agricultural film operation was stable with a slight increase in the start - up rate, and the demand for other films was good as Double 11 approached. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price was 6920 (+0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract was 41, and the premium - discount ratio was 0.6%, which was bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory was 58.0 tons (+3.7), which was neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, which was bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, stable operation of the agricultural film industry, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PE was expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. - Positive Factors: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [5]. - Negative Factors: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [5]. - Main Logic: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving was supported by the peak season and performed well, while the demand for pipes increased but was still weak year - on - year. The current PP delivery product spot price was 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract was - 15, and the premium - discount ratio was - 0.2%, which was neutral [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory was 67.9 tons (-0.3), which was bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract decreased, which was bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, the launch of new production capacity, the maintenance of the average downstream start - up rate, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PP was expected to fluctuate weakly today [6]. - Positive Factors: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [7]. - Negative Factors: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [7]. - Main Logic: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery product price was 6920 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6879 (+5), the basis was 41 (-5), the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 58.0 tons, and the social PE inventory was 54.6 tons [8]. - PP: The spot delivery product price was 6550 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6565 (+14), the basis was - 15 (-14), the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 67.9 tons, and the social PP inventory was 34.9 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with the production capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [12]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally increased, with the production capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [14].