大越期货油脂早报-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively neutral, with stable imports and inventories. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production reduction season. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,492, with a basis of 198, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,500. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production increase season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,306, with a basis of 12, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production increase season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,191, with a basis of 327, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]