Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view is that the previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillate and rebound, with increased trading volume and both long and short positions increasing, more so for the long positions. The market may oscillate and weaken in the short term. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising in the weak area, the trend indicator is falling, the long - side strength is rising, the short - side strength is falling, and the dominance of the short - side is narrowing. It is recommended that Shanghai Zinc ZN2512 will oscillate and weaken [17]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1150700 tons, consumption was 1171700 tons, with a supply shortage of 21000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9088500 tons, consumption was 9369800 tons, with a supply shortage of 281300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1069600 tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8445700 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The basis is +10 with a spot price of 21980, which is neutral [2]. - On October 21, LME zinc inventory decreased by 50 tons to 37275 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 151 tons to 66268 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc oscillated and rebounded, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing down, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Quotes - On October 21, for zinc futures, different delivery months had various price movements. For example, for the 2511 contract, the previous settlement was 21880, the opening price was 21895, the high was 22035, the low was 21870, the closing price was 21965, the settlement reference price was 21955, with an increase of 85 and 75 respectively, trading volume of 54001 lots, and turnover of 592882.08. There were also details for other contracts like 2512, 2601, etc. [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On October 21, in the domestic spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17120 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in Aoshi was 21980 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 3961 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in Tiantian was 4360 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22490 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27270 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20500 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin 8 Xiaocun was 7790 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From October 9 to October 20, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 13.62 million tons to 16.29 million tons. Compared with October 13, it increased by 0.94 million tons, and compared with October 16, it increased by 0.73 million tons [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On October 21, the total zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange were 66268 tons, a decrease of 151 tons. In Shanghai, the total was 0 tons; in Guangdong, it was 37874 tons; in Jiangsu, it was 422 tons; in Zhejiang, it was 0 tons; and in Tianjin, it was 27972 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 21, the LME zinc inventory was 37275 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous day. The registered warrants were 24425 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 12850 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 34.47% [7]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On October 21, in major domestic cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, etc., all increased by 50 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 16820 to 17120 yuan/ton [8]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 21, for 0 zinc ingots with a purity of ≥99.995%, the prices of different brands such as Hunan Zhuzhou Juzhuan (Torch), Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry (Huzinc), etc., all increased by 70 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 21640 to 22640 yuan/ton [11]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 5068000 tons, the actual production was 4999000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%, a year - on - year increase of 16.13%, and a 1.35% shortfall compared to the plan. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production for October was 5096000 tons [13]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 21, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions such as FFF 3BF, Huludao, etc., showed different price ranges and changes. The import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 95 - 115 dollars/dry ton, with an average of 105 dollars/dry ton [15]. 11. SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2512 contract on October 21, in terms of trading volume, the top three were Guotai Junan with 35970 lots (an increase of 22065 lots), CITIC Futures with 30173 lots (a decrease of 2000 lots), and Dongzheng Futures with 21961 lots (an increase of 788 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 16101 lots (an increase of 1533 lots), Guoxin Futures with 7628 lots (an increase of 59 lots), and Dongzheng Futures with 6652 lots (an increase of 1099 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 21346 lots (an increase of 412 lots), Qiankun Futures with 10707 lots (a decrease of 623 lots), and Guotai Junan with 9335 lots (an increase of 471 lots) [16].
沪锌期货早报-20251022
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-22 02:40