棉花早报-20251022

Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton Morning Report - October 22, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - Report Date: October 22, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, and market trends. Overall, the market shows a mixed situation with both bullish and bearish factors. Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the earlier bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continues to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The expected national cotton output is 728 million tons, with Xinjiang reaching a new high. Multiple reports provide different data on global and domestic cotton production, consumption, and inventory. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%, while cotton yarn imports were 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,728, and the basis is 1,188 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The expected ending inventory in the 2025/26 season in October by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectation: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the earlier bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continues to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September): The total global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons [4][9]. - ICAC Global Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, consumption is 2.56 million tons, ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, and global trade volume is 970,000 tons. The price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 Season Data (October): Production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4][13]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided in the report. 4. Bullish and Bearish Factors 4.1 Bullish Factors - The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and commercial inventory is lower year-on-year [5]. 4.2 Bearish Factors - Trade negotiations are ongoing, and the current export tariffs to the US are relatively high. Overall, foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and consumption during the "Golden September" period was weak [6].