天胶早报-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply is starting to increase [4] - Spot: Spot is strong, and the 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price remained flat on October 21st [4][8] - Inventory: Exchange inventories are continuously decreasing, and Qingdao region inventories are also decreasing. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week-on-week and year-on-year, while the Qingdao region inventory decreased week-on-week but increased year-on-year [4][14][17] - Tire Operating Rate: Tire operating rates are at a high level [4] - Automobile Production and Sales: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising [23][26] - Tire Production and Exports: Tire production reached a new high in the same period, and tire industry exports also reached a new high in the same period [29][32] Basis - The spot price is 14,300, and the basis is -850, which is bearish. The basis weakened on October 21st [4][35] Long and Short Factors - Bullish Factors: High downstream consumption, resilient spot prices, and domestic anti-involution [6] - Bearish Factors: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]