大越期货沥青期货早报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Although the cost support from crude oil has strengthened in the short - term, the inventory situation is mixed with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will show a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating between 3137 - 3177 [8][10]. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced asphalt products, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 37.3921%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 253,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. The output of sample enterprises was 624,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.97%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 616,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - Demand Side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt was 12.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost Side: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 299.81 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 718.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.59%. The processing loss of asphalt has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [9]. - Other Aspects: On October 21, the spot price in Shandong was 3340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 183 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory was 1.051 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. Factory inventory was 727,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.36%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.66%. The MA20 of the market trend is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, changing from short to long [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, inventory, construction rates, and profits of asphalt [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis Trend: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [20][21]. - Spread Analysis: It includes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt, the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It presents the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt prices from 2020 - 2025 [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38][41]. - Supply - Side Analysis: It includes the trends of shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume (weekly and monthly), Marrow crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, construction rate, and maintenance loss estimation from 2018 - 2025 [44][46][49][52][55][58][61]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio from 2019 - 2025 [64][68][71]. - Import and Export Analysis: It presents the trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][77][78]. - Demand - Side Analysis: It includes the trends of petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator sales, roller sales, excavator monthly working hours), asphalt construction rate (heavy - traffic asphalt, by - use asphalt), and downstream construction conditions (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [80][83][86][90][95][98][100]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].