大越期货原油早报-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil stabilized and rebounded. The suspension of the meeting between Trump and Putin cast a shadow over the negotiation prospects due to differences in the Ukraine war. The US Energy Department's plan to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve signaled low oil prices, and the significant draw in API crude oil inventory stimulated the price rebound. However, the market still faces many macro - shocks such as Sino - US trade negotiations, and short - term oil prices are expected to run at a low level. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The Trump - Putin summit was postponed due to the Ukraine issue, and the US Energy Department plans to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the SPR. Trump rejected the Democrats' meeting request. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - Basis: On October 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $62.47 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $61.24 per barrel. The basis was 29.53 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17, while the EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels in the week ending October 10 (expected to increase by 0.288 million barrels). Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.703 million barrels in the week ending October 10. As of October 21, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - Main Position: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased, and as of October 14, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased, which is bearish [3]. - Expectation: Short - term oil prices are expected to run at a low level, and SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, with long - term investors advised to stay on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The Trump - Putin summit was postponed due to Russia's refusal to immediately cease fire in Ukraine, and a White House official said Trump has no plan to meet Putin in the near future [5]. - The EU Trade Commissioner invited China's Commerce Minister to visit Brussels to find an "urgent solution" to China's tightened rare - earth export restrictions. China hopes the EU will urge the Netherlands to solve the Anshi Semiconductor issue, and both sides exchanged views on the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [5]. - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, has accelerated crude oil purchases from the Middle East due to uncertain Russian crude oil exports to India, and has bought at least 2.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Gulf region recently [5]. - UBS expects oil prices to stabilize around the current level, but if trade tensions escalate, oil prices may face pressure. UBS believes the oil market is in a supply glut, but not as extreme as the IEA's forecast [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The threat of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to refineries and oil fields, and the mitigation of Trump's tariff threats [6]. - Bearish factors: Easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increases [6]. - Market Drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are weakening, and there is a medium - to - long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased by $0.03 ( - 0.05%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.09 ( - 0.16%), SC crude oil increased by 1.70 (0.39%), and Oman crude oil increased by $0.19 (0.31%) [7]. - Spot Quotes: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $0.65 (1.07%), WTI decreased by $0.28 ( - 0.49%), Oman crude oil decreased by $1.32 ( - 2.08%), Shengli crude oil decreased by $0.03 ( - 0.05%), and Dubai crude oil increased by $0.29 (0.47%) [9]. - Inventory Data: API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels in the week ending October 10 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of October 14, the net long position was 109,606, a decrease of 37,794 [19].