Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, and inventory aspects of the lithium carbonate market. It points out that the market is currently in a state of over - supply with weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,100 - 76,860 yuan/ton [8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase [8]. - Demand: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 74,936 yuan/ton, a 0.21% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 1,870 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 77,947 yuan/ton, a 0.60% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 6,903 yuan/ton [8]. - Overall Judgment: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,100 - 76,860 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - Futures Closing Price and Basis: The prices of various contracts and their basis showed different degrees of change, with the basis of some contracts narrowing and others widening [13]. - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and other upstream products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.35% to 854 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.14% to 74,100 yuan/ton [13]. - Positive Factors: There are plans for manufacturers to stop or reduce production, the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased month - on - month, and the import volume of lithium spodumene has declined [9]. - Negative Factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains high with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [10]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of lithium ore has shown a certain upward trend [22]. - Production and Import: The production and import volume of lithium ore in different periods have changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium ore in September 2025 was 19,950 tons, and the import volume was 71,262 tons [24]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Import: The production and import volume of lithium carbonate have changed over time. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 was 87,260 tons, and the import volume was 20,000 tons [34]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has also fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production, Import, and Export: The production, import, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The monthly production of lithium hydroxide in September 2025 was 27,470 tons, the export volume was 7,200 tons, and the import volume was 800 tons [39]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials have changed. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is currently at a loss [42]. - Profit of Different Processes: The profit of different processes such as purification and carbonation of lithium carbonate has also changed [44]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate includes the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties. The total inventory last week was 132,658 tons, a 1.58% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average [8]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The inventory of lithium hydroxide has also changed over time [37]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Production and Sales: The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The monthly production of power batteries in September 2025 was 76,000 GWh, and the export volume of lithium batteries has also shown different trends in different years [52]. - Price and Cost: The price and cost of lithium batteries have changed. For example, the price of some types of batteries has remained stable, while the cost has fluctuated [52]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Profit: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors have changed over time. The average price of some types of ternary precursors has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [58]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Materials - Price, Cost, and Profit: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials have changed over time. The average price of some types of ternary materials has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [64]. - Production, Import, and Export: The production, import, and export volume of ternary materials have changed over time [64][68]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price, Cost, and Profit: The price, cost, and profit of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The price of phosphoric acid iron lithium has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [72]. - Production, Export, and Inventory: The production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time [75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have increased year - on - year. The production volume in September 2025 was 1,617,000 vehicles, and the sales volume was 1.604 million vehicles [16]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased year - on - year [81].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251022
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-22 05:17