Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Financial Derivatives: The A - share market rebounded due to the potential easing of Sino - US relations. Treasury bond futures showed a fluctuating upward trend, and precious metals faced a significant one - day decline due to profit - taking. The freight index of container shipping to Europe was expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. [2][5][8][12] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper prices were affected by high prices and macro - factors, showing a volatile trend. Alumina prices were under pressure due to oversupply. Aluminum prices maintained a high - level shock, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals also showed different trends based on their supply and demand fundamentals. [13][18][20][24] - Black Metals: Steel prices needed to be adjusted through production cuts to ease inventory pressure. Iron ore prices were expected to be weak due to weak demand. The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by supply and demand and inventory changes, with different trading strategies recommended. [44][48][51][54] - Agricultural Products: The demand outlook for US soybeans improved, but domestic soybean and soybean meal prices were expected to be weak. Pig prices rebounded in the short term, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remained. Corn prices showed a slight rebound. [55][59][61] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures: - Stock Index Futures: On Tuesday, the A - share market rose across the board, and the four major stock index futures also increased. The narrowing of the basis spread of the four major stock index futures was in a narrow - range shock. It was recommended to try to sell put options at the support level lightly or construct a bullish call spread with call options. [2][3][4] - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, and the net investment was 6.85 billion yuan. It was recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy. [5][7] - Precious Metals: The US government shutdown and geopolitical issues affected the market. Precious metals experienced a significant one - day decline due to profit - taking. In the short term, gold prices had a callback risk, and silver prices followed gold with a downward adjustment space. [8][9][10] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The freight index of container shipping to Europe showed an upward trend on the futures market. The short - term market was expected to be strongly volatile, and it was recommended to buy the main contract below 1700 points. [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The social inventory increased during the peak season, and copper prices were volatile. High prices inhibited demand, and the supply of copper ore was tight. It was recommended to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan. [13][16][18] - Alumina: The market continued to be weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. It was expected that the spot price would continue to be under pressure, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate between 2750 - 2950 yuan. [18][20] - Aluminum: Aluminum prices maintained a high - level shock, with stable supply, resilient demand, and a continuous decline in inventory. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan. [22][24] - Aluminum Alloy: The price of ADC12 was expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, with cost support and a slow decline in inventory. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan. [24][26] - Zinc: Zinc prices were volatile, with supply gradually becoming loose and demand not exceeding expectations. The short - term price was expected to be driven by macro - factors, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan. [27][29] - Tin: Tin prices rebounded slightly due to the mitigation of the US shutdown risk. Supply was tight, and demand was weak. It was recommended to wait and see. [29][32] - Nickel: The nickel price rose slightly, with high production, stable demand in some fields, and increasing overseas inventory. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan. [32][34] - Stainless Steel: The price of stainless steel was weakly volatile, with cost support but weak downstream demand. The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 12,400 - 12,800 yuan. [36][38] - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures market was in a narrow - range shock, with a supply - demand gap in the peak season and continuous inventory reduction. The main contract was expected to be strongly volatile between 75,000 - 78,000 yuan. [39][43] Black Metals - Steel: The supply of steel sheets was excessive, and production cuts were needed to reduce inventory. The demand was expected to be weak, and the cost of carbon elements was supported. It was recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and consider arbitrage operations. [44][45][46] - Iron Ore: The supply disturbance of iron ore weakened, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The demand was weak, and the price was expected to be weak. It was recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and consider arbitrage. [47][48] - Coking Coal: The price of coking coal was strong, with increased supply after the holiday, and the demand for replenishment increased after de - stocking. It was recommended to buy the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage. [49][51] - Coke: The first round of price increase was implemented before the holiday, and the second round was proposed but not yet implemented. The supply was expected to be tight, and the demand was weak. It was recommended to buy the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage. [52][54] Agricultural Products - Meal: The demand outlook for US soybeans improved, but domestic soybean and soybean meal prices were expected to be weak. The Brazilian soybean sowing was progressing smoothly, and the supply was expected to increase. It was recommended to pay attention to the arrival rhythm. [55][57][58] - Pig: Pig prices rebounded in the short term due to the increase in the fat - lean price difference and the entry of second - round fattening. However, the medium - and long - term supply pressure remained, and it was recommended to hold the LH3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. [59][60] - Corn: Corn prices rose slightly, with an increase in port inventory. The short - term price was expected to be strong. [61]
广发早知道：汇总版-20251022
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-22 06:36