瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a de - stocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse exceeding expectations. After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered significantly, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. However, the overall market performance has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control to control inventory growth. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,630 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,350 yuan/ton, down 15 - 10 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,800 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume and net position of both Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber have decreased, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber have decreased by 1,340 tons, while those of 20 - number rubber have increased by 1,412 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,950 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 0 - 30 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers have increased by 300 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 and cis - butadiene BR9000 are 11,400 yuan/ton and 11,200 yuan/ton respectively, with the former up 100 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products has decreased, while the price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market has increased by 104 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract has decreased by 81 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet, film, glue, and cup rubber) have different changes. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 have decreased. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons. The weekly opening rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires have increased significantly [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong have different changes. The monthly production of all - steel and semi - steel tires has increased. The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of the underlying asset have decreased, while the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options have increased [2] Industry News - In September 2025, the El Niño Index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon. As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 4.07%. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 1.70%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 4.51%. The natural rubber production areas in Yunnan are in normal production, while Hainan is affected by Typhoon Fengshen, with limited raw material supply [2]