Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, both raw material and synthetic rubber prices declined. The spot market generally had low - price transactions. Under the downward price trend on the spot side, the inventory of trading enterprises decreased. After the price dropped to a relatively low level, as the liquidity of the spot market improved, the active entry of downstream buyers was expected to drive down the spot inventory [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises increased significantly as most enterprises resumed production as planned after the holiday, but the overall market did not show an obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises were still in a state of flexible production control. It was expected that the operation of enterprise equipment would be stable in the short term. The BR2512 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,050 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 71,972 (a decrease of 836). The synthetic rubber 12 - 1 spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,050 tons (unchanged) [2]. - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in Shandong were 11,050 yuan/ton, with the price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical increasing by 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai and from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong were 11,100 yuan/ton and 11,300 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter increasing by 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 10 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 61.32 US dollars/barrel (an increase of 0.31), and WTI crude oil was 57.24 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 540 US dollars/ton (an increase of 3), the Northeast Asian ethylene price was 780 US dollars/ton, the CFR China price of butadiene was 975 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 25), and the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,600 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.53 million tons/week (a decrease of 0.01), and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.79% (a decrease of 1.58). The port inventory of butadiene was 30,800 tons [2]. - The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 50.28% (a decrease of 0.15). The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 130,400 tons (a decrease of 0.53), the weekly capacity utilization rate was 74.82% (an increase of 8.41), the weekly production profit was - 360 yuan/ton, the weekly social inventory was 32,800 tons (an increase of 500), the manufacturer's inventory was 27,900 tons, and the trader's inventory was 4,860 tons (a decrease of 840) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires were 72.72% (an increase of 17.46) and 64.52% (an increase of 13.65) respectively. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.314 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 6.025 million pieces (an increase of 219,000) [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong were 39.95 days (an increase of 0.08) and 45.17 days (a decrease of 0.53) respectively [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07% (a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96% (a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points) [2]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber slightly declined. The capacity utilization rate was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points from the previous period but an increase of 12.16 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - Most butadiene rubber plants that were under maintenance during the holiday restarted, and domestic production increased. Some plants had maintenance plans, while others restarted. Maoming Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical increased their production, and the overall output was expected to increase month - on - month [2].
合成橡胶产业日报-20251022
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-22 10:34