瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251022

Report Overview - Report Date: October 22, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Industrial Silicon Industry Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The industrial silicon market continued its stable trend today. After the release of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the market is expected to form new breakthrough points. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices. The overall demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon remains negative, and the industry inventory is still at a high level, with inventory digestion facing certain pressure [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,485 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position of the main contract was 96,554 lots, down 10,964 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 36,839 lots, down 273 lots; the warehouse receipts of GME were 48,738 lots, down 113 lots; the closing price of the December contract was -365 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between the November - December contracts was -365 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - ventilated 553 silicon was 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 865 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,980 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1,337.59 tons, an increase of 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2,635.83 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 69.36%, down 1.16 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.635 million tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons [2] 2. Industry News - GCL Technology announced that its photovoltaic materials business turned profitable in Q3 2025, recording a profit of about 960 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year. After excluding non - recurring gains, the business still achieved an operating profit. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments adjusted the VAT policy for wind power generation and other sectors [2] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply Side - The spot price of industrial silicon in the market mainly declined this week. Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, with rising production costs for manufacturers and accelerating production cut plans. Some enterprises with exhausted raw materials have stopped production. Some small factories in Gansu and Ningxia have completed raw material reserves and are waiting to start production. Some manufacturers in Xinjiang are actively producing, and some are conducting transactions with futures - cash merchants, locking in profits in advance through forward contracts [2] Demand Side - Organic Silicon: The inventory is lower than the historical average. The production profit has slightly rebounded but is still in the loss range. The comprehensive operating rate decreased month - on - month and is lower than the historical average, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. - Polysilicon: The inventory is as high as 275,000 tons, higher than the historical average. Silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, and only components are profitable. - Aluminum Alloy: The overall inventory decreased slightly, the price remained flat, the industry's operating situation was stable, but the demand was average, and the pull on industrial silicon was limited [2]