沪铜产业日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 85,420 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,657 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 233,361 lots, up 2,135 lots. The LME copper inventory is 137,150 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 84,955 yuan/ton, down 775 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,055 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan. The CU main contract basis is - 465 yuan/ton, down 795 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 75,320 yuan/metal ton, down 770 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 76,020 yuan/metal ton, down 770 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.74%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.94%, down 0.01%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 17.58%, down 0.0187%; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.28, up 0.0062 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Reuters survey: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain. Trump plans to visit China early next year. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has in - depth exchanges on issues such as export controls and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [2]