瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20251022

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals show that the order from the Indonesian President to close 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and there are signs of short - term supply improvement as mining licenses are approved. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area is still severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, as tin prices fluctuate around 280,000 yuan, the wait - and - see sentiment of some downstream and terminal enterprises has subsided, leading to a small amount of replenishment. However, some still maintain just - in - time purchasing. Overall, the spot market trading has warmed up, with the spot premium remaining at 400 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of Shanghai Tin is 281,680 yuan/ton, up 810 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 450 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,475 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 17,330 lots, down 2,223 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 1,393 lots, up 472 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,735 tons, unchanged; LME tin cancelled warrants are 205 tons, up 25 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 5,691 tons, down 188 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 5,600 tons, up 65 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 281,420 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 430 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 182,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1666 million tons, down 0.0394 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Foreign Ministry had no information to provide. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held video talks with EU officials on export control and other issues and also talked with the Dutch economic minister. Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain. The President of Indonesia ordered to close 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung [3]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [3].