瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market has recently experienced a significant overall correction due to the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking sentiment at high levels and the weakening of market risk - aversion sentiment. The short - term trend of gold and silver is expected to be mainly wide - range fluctuations, with attention focused on the US CPI data released on Friday. The support for London gold is at the $4000 mark, but there is a need to guard against subsequent correction risks. The attention range for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11500 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 952.56 yuan/gram, down 41.5 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11404 yuan/kilogram, down 401 yuan. - The main contract open interest of Shanghai Gold is 192,803 lots, down 12,307 lots; that of Shanghai Silver is 386,233 lots, down 38,321 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract is 110,696 lots, down 9432 lots; that of Shanghai Silver is 97,632 lots, up 6359 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 87,015 kilograms, up 450 kilograms; that of silver is 691,688 kilograms, down 57,674 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 943.5 yuan/gram, down 49.4 yuan; the silver spot price is 11,303 yuan/kilogram, down 548 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 9.06 yuan/gram, down 7.9 yuan; that of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 101 yuan/kilogram, down 147 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 1058.66 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,676.64 tons, down 93.13 tons. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; that of silver is 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 28.14%, up 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.33%, up 0.5%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 34.39%, down 0.58%; that of at - the - money put options is 34.39%, down 0.59% [2] 3.5 Industry News - UK inflation "unexpectedly remained unchanged", leading the market to increase bets on interest - rate cuts. The September CPI year - on - year was 3.8%, the same as the previous month, lower than the expected 4.0%. - European leaders issued a joint statement supporting negotiations to promote a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and agreed with Trump's proposal of an immediate cease - fire and using the current contact line as the starting point for negotiations. - Recently, a large amount of silver has flowed from the US and China into the London spot market, alleviating the liquidity crunch in the world's largest over - the - counter precious metals trading center. The one - month silver lending rate in London has dropped from a record high of 35% on October 10th to 19%, confirming that the tight silver spot situation has been alleviated [2]