Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Industry Daily Report 2025/10/22 [1] - Researcher: Chen Sijia [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03118799 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0022803 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the carbonate lithium industry may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with the demand growth rate faster than the supply, leading to the depletion of industrial inventory [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 39.01%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.0799%. The call open interest in the options market dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish, while the implied volatility slightly decreases [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a slight upward trend and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 77,120 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 is - 159,908 lots, down 9,808 lots [2]. - The open interest of the main contract is 353,231 lots, up 43,032 lots [2]. - The price difference between near - and far - month contracts is - 940 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan [2]. - The warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 29,019 lots/ton, down 873 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 74,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [2]. - The average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 72,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 2,770 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 880 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of amblygonite is 7,650 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2]. - The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,791 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of carbonate lithium is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of carbonate lithium is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of carbonate lithium is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons [2]. - The monthly operating rate of carbonate lithium enterprises is 47%, up 1% [2]. - The monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh [2]. - The price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 87,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan [2]. - The price of ternary material (811 type): China is 160,000 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan [2]. - The price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 139,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 150,000 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan [2]. - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2% [2]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 59%, up 2% [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,617,000 vehicles, up 226,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,604,000 vehicles, up 209,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 46.09%, up 0.55% [2]. - The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 11,228,000 vehicles, up 2,908,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1,758,000 vehicles, up 830,000 vehicles [2]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 19.17%, up 0.48% [2]. - The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 32.56%, up 0.10% [2] Option Situation - The total call open interest is 109,447 contracts, up 5,840 contracts [2]. - The total put open interest is 42,694 contracts, up 4,433 contracts [2]. - The put - call ratio of total open interest is 39.01%, up 2.0799% [2]. - The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, down 0.0178% [2] 2. Industry News - The General Office of the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government issued the Implementation Plan for the Special Action to Boost Consumption in Guangzhou, which aims to expand the implementation of consumer goods trade - in programs, increase subsidy categories, and carry out group - buying activities to drive consumption of home appliances and automobiles. It also actively seeks pilot projects for automobile circulation consumption reform [2]. - Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, said that the power battery market was strong in September, with good performance in both exports and domestic sales. The current main battery energy density range of pure electric vehicles is between 125 and 160, and the high - energy - density batteries have slightly improved recently [2]. - According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to September 2025, the top ten automobile sales enterprises (groups) sold a total of 20.431 million vehicles, accounting for 83.9% of the total automobile sales. Among them, the sales of Dongfeng Company and GAC Group decreased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year, while the sales of other enterprises increased to varying degrees [2] 3. Market Trends - The main contract of carbonate lithium fluctuated strongly, closing up 1.63%. The open interest increased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened [2]
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251022
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-22 10:30