宏观经济深度研究：从安倍经济学到早苗经济学

Economic Overview - On October 21, 2025, Sanna Marin became Japan's first female Prime Minister, coinciding with a critical phase of structural reform and cyclical adjustment in the Japanese economy[1] - Japan's inflation has gradually moved out of a long-term low range, with the monthly CPI maintaining a year-on-year growth of 2%-4% since April 2022[2] - Average wage growth from spring negotiations is expected to exceed 5% for two consecutive years in 2024 and 2025, marking the highest level in nearly 30 years[2] Inflation Dynamics - Current inflation is primarily driven by short-term factors such as rising food, energy, and import prices, with the CPI growth rate at 3.1% in July 2025, while excluding energy and food, the inflation rate is only 1.6%[2] - The wage-price interaction mechanism in Japan is still fragile, with potential disruptions from external shocks affecting corporate profits and investment willingness[2] Economic Policy Framework - Sanna Marin's economic policy, termed "Marin Economics," continues the legacy of Abenomics, emphasizing active policy intervention to address structural stagnation[1] - The policy framework retains Abenomics' "three arrows": accommodative monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy, and structural reforms, but with a stronger focus on strategic investments and structural guidance[1][6] Market Implications - If Marin's policies are effectively implemented, fiscal expansion may increase government bond supply, potentially steepening the yield curve[1] - The normalization pace of Japan's monetary policy may slow, exerting short-term pressure on the yen, but medium-term support is expected as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle[1] Regional Impact - Japanese asset performance has significant spillover effects on Asian markets, with structural trends in the Japanese stock market often signaling global capital reallocation towards Asian risk assets[1][6]