芳烃橡胶早报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, near - term TA partial device load increased,开工 slightly rose, polyester load remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated, basis weakened, and spot processing fee stayed low; PX domestic operation declined, overseas partial maintenance took place, PXN widened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were stable, and the US - Asia aromatics spread widened. In the future, polyester has no unexpected performance, TA will gradually enter the inventory - accumulation stage, but the current low processing fee has lasted for a long time. Pay attention to additional maintenance. With limited far - month production, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, near - term domestic maintenance and restart co - existed, load still slightly increased, overseas maintenance took place, arrivals were stable but shipments were dull, port inventory continued to slightly accumulate at the beginning of next week, basis was stable, and coal - based benefits and ratios further shrank. In the future, EG's existing operation has reached a relatively high level, combined with new device production, it will enter a continuous inventory - accumulation stage. However, after the coal - based benefits and ratios weaken, the supply side may have some negative feedback. Also, coal prices have strengthened recently. Pay attention to the selling put opportunities near the coal - based cost [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation was stable, operation rate remained at 94.3%, sales improved, and inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increased, both raw material and finished product inventories decreased, and benefits slightly improved. In the future, the overall operation rate and finished product inventory of polyester yarn have not significantly increased. Staple fiber's own exports maintain high growth. With acceptable spot benefits, the high operation rate will be maintained, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. The disk processing fee is not high. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory is stable and the absolute level is not high, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable while rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, crude oil price remained unchanged at 61.3, PTA inner - market spot price increased by 50 to 4370, and polyester gross profit decreased by 13 to 118. The basis decreased by 1 to - 88, and sales decreased by 0.9 to 0.75 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term TA partial device load increased,开工 slightly rose, polyester load remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated, basis weakened, and spot processing fee stayed low. PX domestic operation declined, overseas partial maintenance took place, PXN widened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were stable, and the US - Asia aromatics spread widened [2]. - Future Outlook: Polyester has no unexpected performance, TA will gradually enter the inventory - accumulation stage, but the current low processing fee has lasted for a long time. Pay attention to additional maintenance. With limited far - month production, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged at 780, MEG inner - market price increased by 32 to 4107, and MEG coal - based profit increased by 32 to - 65. The total load and coal - based MEG load remained unchanged at 77.0 and 81.4 respectively, and the port inventory remained unchanged at 57.9 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term domestic maintenance and restart co - existed, load still slightly increased, overseas maintenance took place, arrivals were stable but shipments were dull, port inventory continued to slightly accumulate at the beginning of next week, basis was stable, and coal - based benefits and ratios further shrank. The 400,000 - ton Fulin device was under maintenance [2]. - Future Outlook: EG's existing operation has reached a relatively high level, combined with new device production, it will enter a continuous inventory - accumulation stage. However, after the coal - based benefits and ratios weaken, the supply side may have some negative feedback. Also, coal prices have strengthened recently. Pay attention to the selling put opportunities near the coal - based cost [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 25 to 6365, and the short - fiber profit remained unchanged at 264, while the pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 25 to 15 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term device operation was stable, operation rate remained at 94.3%, sales improved, and inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increased, both raw material and finished product inventories decreased, and benefits slightly improved [2]. - Future Outlook: The overall operation rate and finished product inventory of polyester yarn have not significantly increased. Staple fiber's own exports maintain high growth. With acceptable spot benefits, the high operation rate will be maintained, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. The disk processing fee is not high. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, the weekly change of US - dollar Thai standard rubber spot price was 20 to 1845, and the weekly change of RU main contract price was 255 to 15150. The daily change of RU main contract price was 0 on October 22, and the daily change of the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract was 0 [2]. - Market Situation: The main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory is stable and the absolute level is not high, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable while rainfall affects tapping [2]. - Strategy: Wait and see [2]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged at 780, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased to 674, and the price of styrene (CFR China) increased by 10 to 805. The daily change of ABS (0215A) price on October 22 was - 100 to 8600 [6]. - Profit Changes: From October 16 to October 22, 2025, styrene domestic profit changed from - 482 to - 488, EPS domestic profit increased from 245 to 405, and PS domestic profit changed from - 289 to - 181 [6].