《能源化工》日报-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - For the polyolefin industry, the overall macro - environment is pessimistic, and the cost and supply - demand situation are weak. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure. The 01 contracts of LLDPE and PP have limited upside space due to new device production pressure and lackluster demand [2]. - In the polyester industry, PX is expected to be strong in the short - term due to supply contraction and demand support. PTA may be boosted in the short - term. EG is under pressure due to inventory build - up. Short - fiber prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip prices follow the cost side [4]. - Regarding pure benzene and styrene, the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. They may follow oil prices in the short - term [5]. - For PVC and caustic soda, short - term caustic soda prices are weak due to supply increase and general demand, while long - term there is demand support. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and the short - term disk has stopped falling [6]. - In the methanol industry, the price may continue to oscillate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to overseas device operation, port de - stocking, and overseas gas - limiting expectations [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On October 22, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 increased. The price differences between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed. The prices of some spot products such as East China PP wire drawing and North China LDPE film also rose [2]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: PE and PP inventories decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Polyester Industry - Product Prices and Cash Flows: On October 22, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha increased. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY also changed. The cash flows of some products decreased [4]. - PX - Related: Some PX devices had unplanned maintenance or load reduction, and a new PTA device was planned to be put into production. PX supply was expected to shrink, and demand was supported [4]. - PTA - Related: As some PTA devices restored their loads and new devices were about to be put into production, the PTA spot basis continued to weaken [4]. - EG - Related: Domestic ethylene glycol devices started up and increased their loads, and the supply was sufficient. It was expected to build up inventory in October [4]. - Short - fiber and Bottle - chip: Short - fiber supply was high, and demand was supported. Bottle - chip was in the traditional off - season, and demand was weak [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Prices and Spreads: On October 22, the prices of some products such as CFR China pure benzene and BZ futures 2603 increased. The spreads between pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [5]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: Pure benzene and styrene inventories changed, and the operating rates of industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain also changed [5]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Pure benzene supply was expected to be loose due to new capacity and weak demand. Styrene supply was expected to be high, and demand was limited [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On October 22, the prices of SH2601 and V2601 increased, while SH2509 decreased. The price differences between SH2509 - 2601 and V2509 - V2601 changed [6]. - Export and Inventory: Caustic soda and PVC export prices and profits changed. The inventories of caustic soda and PVC also changed [6]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Caustic soda demand was weak in the short - term but had long - term support. PVC supply - demand pressure was large, and the market was weak [6]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: On October 22, the closing prices of MA2601 decreased, while MA2605 increased. The basis and regional price differences changed [7]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: Methanol inventories such as enterprise, port, and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [7]. - Supply - demand Analysis: Overseas methanol production decreased, and there were expectations of supply reduction. Port inventory was high, and demand was weak in the traditional downstream [7].