Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - Oils and Fats: Overall, a phase of bearish sentiment is maintained. Palm oil may test the support around 9000 yuan, and the market is expected to gradually stabilize if it can find support at this level. Soybean oil has a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the domestic futures market may maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. The spot basis quotation may have limited fluctuation space [1]. - Sugar: The raw sugar price has limited rebound momentum due to supply expectations. It is expected to fluctuate between 15 - 16 cents per pound. The 9 - month production and sales data is moderately bearish, and the market is expected to maintain a shock - weak pattern [3][4]. - Meal Products: The spot price of domestic soybean meal is expected to have limited upward movement this year, but the downward space is also limited. If the market does not purchase US soybeans, the M2601 contract has support around 2900, and attention should be paid to the uncertainty of arrivals [6]. - Pigs: In the long - term, the supply pressure of pigs in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. The policy - driven industry capacity reduction effect needs time to materialize, and the spot price is expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The short - term disk operation may be strong, but the upward space is limited [9]. - Corn: In the short - term, the slow increase in corn supply supports the price, but it is under pressure from the supply side. The disk is expected to maintain a low - level shock [12][14]. - Cotton: In the short - term, cotton prices will fluctuate within a range. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract has cost support at low levels, but there is also increasing hedging pressure above 13500 - 13600. The downstream terminal demand is weak, but textile enterprises have demand for cotton raw materials at current prices [15]. - Eggs: The egg price is expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize for observation, but there is still overall pressure due to sufficient supply and improving demand [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On October 22, compared with October 21, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased to varying degrees. The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased, while the basis of palm oil increased. The cross - period spreads of various oils also changed, with the palm oil cross - period spread increasing significantly [1]. - Market Influencing Factors: For palm oil, the high production in the first 20 days has a negative impact on the market, and the end - of - month inventory estimate and the MPOB report are key factors. For soybean oil, factors such as US inventory changes, Brazilian biodiesel policies, and domestic market competition all affect the market [1]. Sugar - Market Conditions: On October 22, the prices of sugar futures and spot decreased. The production and sales data showed an increase in production and sales, but the sales rate decreased slightly. The import price of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the price difference with domestic sugar also changed [3]. - Influencing Factors: The supply pressure from Brazil and the market's attention to the production prospects of India and Thailand affect the raw sugar price. The 9 - month production and sales data and new sugar pre - sale prices affect the domestic sugar market [3][4]. Meal Products - Price and Inventory: The prices of domestic soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed minor changes. The inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is still at a high level, and the recent purchase has slowed down due to poor crushing margins [6]. - Market Influencing Factors: The improvement of the US soybean export expectation, the smooth sowing of Brazilian new - crop soybeans, and the high domestic soybean import volume all affect the market. The uncertainty of soybean arrivals also needs attention [6]. Pigs - Market Conditions: On October 22, the futures price of pigs decreased slightly, while the spot price increased. The slaughter volume increased slightly, and the prices of piglets, sows, and other indicators also changed. The breeding profit decreased significantly [9]. - Influencing Factors: The short - term rebound of pig prices is mainly due to secondary fattening, but the long - term supply pressure is still large, and the policy - driven capacity reduction effect needs time to be reflected [9]. Corn - Price and Inventory: On October 22, the price of corn futures decreased, and the basis increased. The inventory of corn and corn starch changed, with the corn warehouse receipt increasing significantly [12]. - Market Influencing Factors: The weather in different regions affects the corn harvest and price. The demand side is relatively cautious, and the subsequent procurement intention of deep - processing and feed enterprises will increase [12][14]. Cotton - Market Conditions: On October 22, the price of cotton futures decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly. The commercial inventory increased significantly, while the industrial inventory decreased slightly. The import volume increased [15]. - Influencing Factors: The firm purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton provides cost support, but the weak downstream terminal demand and increasing hedging pressure limit the upward space of cotton prices [15]. Eggs - Market Conditions: On October 22, the price of egg futures decreased, and the spot price remained unchanged. The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged, and the price of culled chickens decreased. The egg - to - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [18][19]. - Influencing Factors: The high inventory of laying hens, the improvement of egg - laying rate and egg weight, and the increasing demand from downstream trade - ups all affect the egg price [19].
《农产品》日报-20251023
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-23 01:20