Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to wait and see or consider shorting LME zinc. For the spread between domestic and overseas markets, gradually take profits on long domestic - short overseas positions and look for reverse spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. For the month - to - month spread, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term fundamental situation and increased short - term macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downward space. In the medium - to - long - term, buy at low prices near the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the medium - to - long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are both strong in the short term, maintaining a de - stocking trend. In the long - term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for the pattern change [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market sentiment is mainly influenced by tariff negotiation progress. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be no higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, when LME copper fell 12% and gold rose 2.6%. There is still room for negotiation, and the progress of the South Korea negotiation should be monitored [1]. - Fundamentally, the smelting reduction is more than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's price - setting volume and receiving sentiment are acceptable, and the psychological price - setting level has significantly increased. The copper cable's recent start - up diverges from that of the aluminum cable, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the start - up stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules on the demand side stabilizes, and the proportion of aluminum water in September has significantly rebounded. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in aluminum ingots and aluminum rods due to the holiday effect, but the post - holiday de - stocking amplitude is considerable, and the apparent demand rises [1]. - The global economic recovery signs are emerging, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened, but the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations deepens, causing a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and overseas markets [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillates this week. On the supply side, the domestic TC further decreases, and the imported TC further increases. The domestic ore will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas ore increment in the second quarter exceeds expectations. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43%. In October, the smelting end recovers slightly month - on - month, and the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on the total profit should be noted when the domestic ore processing fee declines [2]. - On the demand side, the domestic demand is seasonally weak and may continue to oscillate weakly after the peak season in September. Overseas, the European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestically, the social inventory oscillates, while the overseas LME inventory decreases, and the visible inventory is close to the lowest level in the past two years. The export window has opened under the current situation of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, and some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, and the premium has been stable recently. On the inventory side, both domestic and overseas inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term fundamental situation is weak [5]. - There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. The short - term macro uncertainty increases [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mills' production schedule in October increases slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The overall fundamentals are weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [9]. Lead - The lead price oscillates slightly at a high level this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits is expected to lead to an incremental production of 20,000 - 30,000 tons in October. The macro sentiment combined with the shortage of waste batteries may drive recyclers to support prices. The concentrate mine's operation rate increases, and the high smelting profit of primary lead leads to a shortage of concentrates, with the TC quotation declining in a chaotic manner [10][11]. - On the demand side, the battery's operation rate increases this week, but the battery's finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day stocking, the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50, and the recycled lead production has gradually started to output. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. There is an expectation of the peak season turning to the off - season in October. After the National Day, the downstream replenishes goods, and there is a short - term inventory - picking demand [11]. Tin - The tin price oscillates this week. On the supply side, the mining processing fee is at a low level. Some scattered orders have tentatively raised the quotation, but large - scale transactions have not occurred yet. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August is still low, but the recovery expectation in October is strong, and it is expected to maintain above 600 metal tons. The quota approval of Indonesia's PT Timah has been completed, and exports resumed in mid - to - late September. The Indonesian president announced that tin ingot exports will return to normal levels in 2026 [13]. - On the demand side, the solder peak season has a slight recovery, mainly supported by rigidity at high prices. After the festival, the arrival of goods is slow, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. The overseas LME inventory oscillates at a low level. The domestic fundamentals show a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to the expected change of the peak season not being prosperous after the marginal recovery of supply at home and abroad in October and the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation on the non - ferrous metals as a whole [13]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continue to resume production, with 35 furnaces in the west and 55 in the east. The number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will significantly decrease in the future. The overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month during the dry season. Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon in Q4 is still in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, the operating rate is low, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price oscillates strongly this week. On the raw material side, the mining end continues to support prices. Due to the significant reduction of the previous inventory, the holders' reluctance to sell is strong, and the spot market is tight. On the lithium salt side, the consumption trend and de - stocking level continuously exceed expectations. With the acceleration of warehouse receipt cancellation this week, the basis of first - tier brands also runs strongly [15]. - In the short term, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the overall de - stocking trend is maintained. It is expected to de - stock 8,000 - 10,000 tons in October. At the end of the year, there are multiple expected games such as the weakening of power demand in the off - season, the sustainability of energy - storage demand, and the supply disturbance in Jiangxi. In the long - term pattern, the supply growth rate at the current price is relatively certain, and the subsequent elasticity of the demand side with the increasing proportion of energy - storage is the key variable for the pattern change [15].
永安期货有色早报-20251023
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-23 01:47