原油成品油早报-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and Dubai 1 - 2 weakened to 0. The geopolitical premium subsided, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers transporting to major trading and transportation centers recently, the on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Related Data - From October 16 - 22, WTI increased by $1.26, BRENT by $1.27, and DUBAI by $0.52. Other related indicators such as spreads and prices of refined products also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - On October 23, international oil prices soared 4% as the US Treasury Department blacklisted Russian state - owned oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil and their subsidiaries, which account for nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in the first half of this year). The US Treasury Department stated that this move would weaken Russia's ability to raise revenue for the conflict. Oil prices were also supported by the growth of US energy demand, as the EIA reported a decline in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [3][4]. - As of the week of October 20, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 2.202 million barrels to 20.014 million barrels, with light distillate inventory decreasing by 0.851 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increasing by 0.668 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increasing by 2.385 million barrels [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease), the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase), and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 393,000 barrels per day to 5.918 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a 0.1% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, gasoline inventory increased while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. 4. Weekly Viewpoints - In the week of October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and the geopolitical premium subsided. The fundamental surplus intensified, and the latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026. The on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on Russian crude oil supply and Sino - US trade negotiations. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6].