大越期货油脂早报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which affects the export of new US soybeans and pressures prices. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main trading ranges are expected to be 8000 - 8400 for soybean oil Y2601, 8900 - 9300 for palm oil P2601, and 9500 - 9900 for rapeseed oil OI2601 [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report for August showed a 9.8% MoM decrease in Malaysian palm oil production to 1.62 million tons, a 14.74% MoM decrease in exports to 1.49 million tons, and a 2.6% MoM decrease in end - of - month inventory to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current shipping survey data shows a 4% MoM increase in Malaysian palm oil exports this month, and palm oil supply pressure will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8442, with a basis of 114, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a MoM increase of 20,000 tons and a YoY increase of 11.7% [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased [2]. - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral. However, palm oil will enter the production - increase season, so supply will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9182, with a basis of 18, indicating the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a MoM increase of 10,000 tons and a YoY decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract increased [3]. - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Same as above for the MPOB report, and palm oil supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10151, with a basis of 317, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a MoM increase of 10,000 tons and a YoY increase of 3.2% [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased [4]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - Lido: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a palm oil tremor season [5]. - Negative: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].