焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-23）-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coking Coal: Although hot metal production has slightly declined recently, it remains at a high level, providing support for rigid demand. Downstream inventories are currently at a safe level. Considering the expected tightening of coking coal supply, some procurement plans are expected to increase. However, due to the generally poor profitability of coking and steel enterprises, most still maintain on - demand procurement. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2] - Coke: Coke supply is expected to further shrink. Although steel mills are undergoing maintenance, overall demand is still acceptable, and some steel mills' inventories are still low, so they are actively replenishing in the short term, which strongly supports coke prices. However, due to the weak terminal steel prices under the pressure of inventory accumulation, the positive impact of steel mills' replenishment demand for coke is diluted. It is expected that coke prices will remain stable in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Some coal mines have shut down due to stricter environmental protection and safety inspections, and sporadic accidents in coal mines have led to a reduction in regional supply. Traders' inquiries and actual成交 orders have slightly increased, coal mines' shipments are smooth, and coal enterprises' coking coal inventories have declined to varying degrees. Considering the low in - plant coking coal inventories in coal mines and the continuous strong procurement of some high - quality resources by coking and steel enterprises, some coal types have seen significant price increases; the situation is neutral [3] Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1300, and the basis is 90.5; the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; it is bullish [3] Inventory Analysis - Steel mills' inventory is 781.1 tons, port inventory is 295 tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory is 819.3 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons compared with last week; it is bullish [3] Disk Analysis - The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; the situation is neutral [3] Main Position Analysis - The main coking coal position is net long, with a decrease in long positions; it is bullish [3] Factors Analysis - Bullish factors: An increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth [5] - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5] Coke Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Currently, the overall production level of coking enterprises is relatively stable, and most are actively shipping. However, recently, the price of raw coking coal has continued to rise, squeezing the profit margin of coking enterprises. Some coking enterprises have reduced production, and the overall start - up rate has decreased steadily; the situation is neutral [8] Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 89.5; the spot price is at a discount to the futures price; it is bearish [8] Inventory Analysis - Steel mills' inventory is 650.8 tons, port inventory is 195.1 tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory is 42.5 tons, and the total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared with last week; it is bullish [8] Disk Analysis - The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; the situation is neutral [8] Main Position Analysis - The main coke position is net short, with an increase in short positions; it is bearish [8] Factors Analysis - Bullish factors: An increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous rise in blast furnace operating rate [10] - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [10] Price Information Coking Coal Price - On October 22, 2017:30, the price of imported Russian coking coal at various ports ranged from 1000 to 1620, and the price of imported Australian coking coal at various ports ranged from 1230 to 1620 [12] Coke Price - On October 22, 2017:30, the price of port metallurgical coke at various ports ranged from 1420 to 1940, with some prices rising by 20 [11] Inventory Information Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared with last week [20] Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared with last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared with last week [24] Steel Mills' Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared with last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared with last week [29] Other Information - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization Rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [42] - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46]