贵金属早报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin may lead to an escalation of Russian energy sanctions, causing the gold price to continue falling. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -2 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has significantly cooled. Despite short - term capital pressure making the gold price weak, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to trade concerns, government shutdowns, and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - Silver: Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin may lead to an escalation of Russian energy sanctions, causing the silver price to continue falling. The premium of Shanghai silver has rapidly and significantly expanded to 300 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment remains strong. With cooling trade concerns, the silver price, which follows the gold price, still has support but faces short - term correction pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $4116.60 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.49 basis points to 3.953%. The US dollar index fell 0.06% to 98.91, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1257. The basis of gold was - 2.31, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 450 kilograms to 87015 kilograms [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce. The basis of silver was - 13, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 57674 kilograms to 691688 kilograms [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The long - term upward trend of the gold price remains unchanged, but it is weak in the short term due to capital pressure. Today, pay attention to the closing of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, as well as speeches by members of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [4]. - Silver: The silver price, which follows the gold price, still has support but faces short - term correction pressure [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: Closing of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Photovoltaic Industry High - Quality Development and Technology Standards Forum; South Korea's central bank to announce interest - rate decision. - 15:30: Swiss National Bank to release the meeting minutes of the September interest - rate decision. - 17:15: Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Woods, to speak on economic growth in northern England. - 19:00: Central Bank of Ukraine to announce interest - rate decision. - 20:00: Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane, to speak. - 21:00: Member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Dhingra, to speak. - 22:00: Fed Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision, Bowman, to testify on the supervision of financial regulatory agencies at a hearing of the US Senate Banking Committee, and possibly release the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in September. - 22:25: Fed Governor Barr to speak on "community investment" at a tax conference [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the long positions of the main players are decreasing [4]. - Silver: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the long positions of the main players are increasing [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: As of October 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 6.81% to 175,296, the short positions decreased by 8.20% to 68,493, and the net position decreased by 5.90% to 106,803 [28]. - Silver: As of October 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.56% to 362,840, the short positions decreased by 9.41% to 270,707, and the net position increased by 18.99% to 92,133 [31].