大越期货菜粕早报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2300 - 2360 range oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is 133, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is 1.75 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing in, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, global geopolitical conflicts may still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 14th to 22nd, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 - 2992, and the trading volume was between 6.51 - 18.62 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2500, and the trading volume was 0. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2440 - 2500. The rapeseed meal futures prices of the 2601 and 2605 contracts fluctuated. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9089 on October 13th to 4702 on October 22nd. Rapeseed meal futures declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small - fluctuating premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the weekly rapeseed meal inventory was flat. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remained low. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][16]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report