大越期货甲醇早报-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market has been in a weak downward trend recently. Besides the macro - news pressure on commodities, the continuous game of methanol supply - demand has also shown negative impacts on the market. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2230 - 2290 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For methanol 2601, the fundamentals are neutral. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures. The inventory in East and South China ports decreased slightly last week, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas also decreased. The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the net position of the main players is short with an increase in short positions. It is expected to oscillate this week [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Some domestic plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to be put into production this month. Some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Some previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. There will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol producers have a certain profit margin and are actively selling their products. Some producers in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in various domestic regions has generally declined. For example, the price in Jiangsu dropped by 2.39% week - on - week. The futures price also decreased by 2.50% week - on - week. The basis in Jiangsu was - 19 yuan/ton, showing a change compared to the previous period. The CIF price in China decreased by 1.13% week - on - week, while the CIF price in Southeast Asia remained relatively stable [8][9][11]. - Operating Rate: The weighted average national operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [8]. - Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 1258,900 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period. The available circulating supply in coastal areas decreased by 63,400 tons to 877,000 tons [5]. - Profit: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased week - on - week, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained stable, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased. The profit of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid showed different trends, and the profit of MTO also increased [21][35][38][42][47]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including those in the Northwest, East, South, and other regions. The maintenance periods and reasons vary, such as planned maintenance, equipment failures, and gas restrictions [59]. - Foreign Plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations. Some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, while some are under maintenance or have low operating rates [60]. - Olefin Plants: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, while others are operating stably. Some plants have plans for future production increases or maintenance [61].