大越期货豆粕早报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - M2601 Soybean Meal: Expected to oscillate in the range of 2880 - 2940. Influenced by the U.S. soybean trend, high October imports, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - A2601 Soybeans: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4000 - 4100. Affected by Sino - U.S. trade negotiations, high imports, and domestic production increase expectations, it will be subject to short - term interactive impacts [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations are deadlocked, causing short - term negative impacts on U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - Domestic soybean imports in October remain at a relatively high level, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories have declined from their highs. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening soybean meal demand in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Positive Factors: Slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain U.S. soybean - growing area weather [14]. - Negative Factors: High total domestic soybean imports in October and the expected U.S. soybean harvest and bumper crop [14]. - Main Logic: Market focus on U.S. soybean harvest weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff games [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Positive Factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean price floor, and expected increased domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - Negative Factors: Bumper Brazilian soybean crops and increased Chinese purchases, as well as expected domestic soybean production increases, suppress price expectations [15]. - Main Logic: Market focus on U.S. soybean weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff games [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: Spot price in East China is 2860, with a basis of - 25, indicating a discount to futures. Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 118.92 tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease and a 3.04% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Soybeans: Spot price is 4100, with a basis of 43, indicating a premium to futures. Oil - mill soybean inventory is 719.91 tons, a 3.63% month - on - month increase and a 14.38% year - on - year increase [11]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Data - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From October 14 - 22, soybean and meal futures and spot prices showed certain fluctuations. For example, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated between 2885 - 2917, and the spot price between 2860 - 2900 [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From October 13 - 22, soybean and meal warehouse receipts changed. For instance, the soybean meal warehouse receipt decreased from 41285 to 42582 [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand balances, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. - Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress: Include data on the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: Show the planting area, yield, output, and other data of U.S. soybeans in the past six months [43]. - Soybean Import and Related Market Conditions: U.S. soybean weekly export inspections have rebounded month - on - month but declined year - on - year. Domestic soybean imports in October have decreased from their highs but increased year - on - year. Oil - mill soybean inventories remain high, and soybean meal inventories have decreased from their highs [44][46][47]. - Pig Market Conditions: Pig inventories are rising, sow inventories are flat year - on - year and slightly declining month - on - month. Pig prices have recently fallen again, and piglet prices remain weak. Domestic large - pig ratios have increased, and secondary fattening costs have risen slightly. Pig - farming profits have recently worsened [55][57][59][61].