建信期货工业硅日报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating. The Si2601 contract closed at 8,805 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The trading volume was 91,554 lots, and the open interest was 162,398 lots, with a net increase of 12,048 lots. Industrial silicon enterprises lack the willingness to actively cut production, and the demand side lacks growth momentum, causing short - term price movements to reach a stalemate. Although the southwest region is about to cut production, the northwest region's output continues to increase, and the weekly output in the third week of October was as high as 97,000 tons. The monthly demand for polysilicon is stable, and if the industry reaches a new consensus on further production cuts, it will continue to have a negative impact on the demand side of industrial silicon. The demand for silicone is 120,000 tons, and the demand for exports and alloys is also 120,000 tons, and there is no drive for inventory reduction in the market. There is also a lack of specific policy follow - up in the industrial silicon industry. In the fourth quarter, the marginal change in the industry is that the southwest production area will enter the dry season, which will increase costs due to rising electricity prices and lead to seasonal active production cuts. The current price has fallen into a stalemate again, and there is a lack of drivers for market improvement. The downward trend slows down near the lower end of the range (net short positions in the 11 - contract are being actively reduced), and the short - term market will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the strength of the lower support [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices oscillated. The Si2601 contract closed at 8,805 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, with a trading volume of 91,554 lots and an open interest of 162,398 lots, a net increase of 12,048 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price range of 553 industrial silicon is 8,800 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 is 9,550 - 9,950 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Market News - On October 22, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 48,738 lots, a net decrease of 113 lots from the previous trading day. In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year in real terms. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.64% compared with the previous month. From January to September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year. From January to September, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% in September [6].