广发期货日评-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has been re - boosted by the potential Sino - US talks at the end - of - month APEC Summit and Trump's softening signals, but the market trading volume has not increased, and the short - term trend is mainly high - level oscillations [3] - There are many uncertainties in the short - term market, including the implementation of the fund redemption fee new rules, the outcome of key meetings and Sino - US trade negotiations, which have a significant impact on short - term risk appetite [3] - Different commodities have different trends. For example, some are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, some are affected by geopolitical factors, and some are influenced by cost and inventory factors [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial - Stock Index: Low - valuation sectors are rotating, and the stock index is oscillating with shrinking volume. It is recommended to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bullish call spread [3] - Treasury Bond: The trend of treasury bond futures is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies and pay appropriate attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the recovery of IRR [3] - Precious Metals: Gold has twice bottomed out and rebounded under the game between long and short positions, with a potential support price of $4000. Silver still has downward pressure, with a support level around $47 [3] Black - Steel: There is an oversupply of plates, and it is necessary to reduce production and destock. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies, conduct long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil operations, and conduct reverse arbitrage for monthly spreads [3] - Iron Ore: Supply - side disturbances have weakened, arrivals have declined, port stocks have increased, and molten iron production has slightly decreased. Iron ore has stopped falling and stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral strategies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [3] - Coking Coal: The price of local coal is running strongly, downstream replenishment demand has recovered, and the price of Mongolian coal is firm. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3] - Coke: The first round of price increase was implemented before the festival, and the mainstream coking enterprises proposed a second - round increase. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3] Non - ferrous - Copper: Social inventories have increased during the peak season, and the copper price is oscillating. The main support level is between 84,000 - 85,000 [3] - Aluminum and Related Products: The social inventory of aluminum is gradually decreasing, and the price is oscillating around 21,000. The social inventory of aluminum alloy has shown an inflection point, and the price is oscillating strongly following the aluminum price [3] - Other Non - ferrous Metals: Zinc prices have strengthened slightly due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze. Tin prices are oscillating at a high level supported by strong fundamentals. Nickel prices are oscillating, and stainless steel prices are oscillating in a narrow range [3] Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: Supported by positive EIA inventory data and geopolitical uncertainties, the short - term oil price still has upward momentum, but the medium - and long - term is expected to be loose. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [3] - Other Chemical Products: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA are boosted by short - term oil price increases; short - fiber is oscillating strongly in the short term; ethanol is under pressure in the short term; and some products are recommended for specific arbitrage strategies [3] Agricultural Products - Grains and Oilseeds: The export expectation of US soybeans has improved, and attention should be paid to the domestic arrival rhythm. The palm oil price has fallen due to increased production [3] - Livestock and Poultry: The pig - breeding end has a strong enthusiasm for slaughter, and the intensity of secondary fattening may slow down. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [3] - Other Agricultural Products: Different agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, and apples have different price trends and corresponding support or pressure levels [3] Special Commodities - Glass: The glass price is continuing to weaken, and the spot trading is still light. It is recommended to take a bearish attitude [3] - Rubber: The positive sentiment for rubber remains strong, and the rubber price continues to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - New Energy - Related Commodities: The price of industrial silicon is oscillating, and the price of polysilicon is oscillating downward. The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating strongly, and the main price range is between 76,000 - 80,000 [3]