Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the destocking range of general trade warehouses exceeding expectations [2]. - After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, driving an obvious increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the overall market performance has not improved significantly. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the operation of enterprise devices will be stable in the short term [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,245 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,815 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 148,828 lots, down 1,539 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 61,890 lots, down 1,523 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 25,462 lots, down 20 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11,411 lots, down 89 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 127,210 tons, down 530 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,640 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,550 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 695 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 732 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.87 Thai baht/kg, down 0.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 54.56 Thai baht/kg, up 0.55 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup glue of Thai raw rubber is 51.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.6 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 221 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51.6 US dollars/ton, down 8.4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.52%, up 13.65 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.72%, up 17.46 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.95 days, up 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 45.17 days, down 0.53 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.5%, up 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.07%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.34%, down 1.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.31%, down 1.13 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 19th to October 25th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has less impact on tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a greater impact on tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. Pay attention to its subsequent development [2]. - As of October 19th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.07%. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decline of 1.70%; the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decline of 4.51% [2]. - The natural rubber producing areas around the world are in the tapping period. The tapping in Yunnan is normal, and the raw material supply is okay. Driven by the strong futures and spot markets, the raw material purchase price has been slightly raised; in Hainan, affected by Typhoon Fengshen, the night precipitation has increased and the temperature has decreased, and the tapping operation on the island has not resumed, and the actual purchase volume of raw materials by local rubber processing plants is relatively limited [2]. - The warehousing rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.01 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [2]. - As of October 16th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251023
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-23 10:02