合成橡胶产业日报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic production of synthetic rubber has increased due to the restart of previously overhauled devices, and the recent strengthening of natural rubber has led to a callback in the mainstream supply price and better low - price transactions. However, more domestic butadiene rubber devices are under maintenance, and the inventory level of production enterprises continues to rise while that of trading enterprises decreases. In the short term, more maintenance of domestic butadiene rubber devices is expected, which may lead to a decline in production and capacity utilization. Considering the weak raw material end, it is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will decrease and that of trading enterprises will increase [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has significantly increased as most enterprises have resumed production after the holiday, but the overall market performance has not improved significantly. Some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control to control inventory growth. It is expected that the operation of enterprise devices will be stable in the short term. The BR2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,120 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main contract is 69,872, with a decrease of 2,100. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 3,050 tons [2]. - The mainstream prices of butadiene rubber from different manufacturers are stable, with prices such as 11,100 yuan/ton and 11,050 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 170 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The price of Brent crude oil is 62.59 US dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.27; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 551.5 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 11.5; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 780 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 970 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 1.26; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 8,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100; the price of WTI crude oil is 58.5 US dollars/barrel, with a decrease of 5 [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.53 million tons, with a decrease of 0.01; the capacity utilization rate is 65.79%, with a decrease of 1.58; the port inventory of butadiene is 30,800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.04%, with a decrease of 0.24 [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.04 million tons, with a decrease of 0.53; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 74.82%, with an increase of 8.41; the weekly production profit is 184 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 3.28 million tons, with an increase of 0.05; the manufacturer's inventory is 1,300 tons, and the trader's inventory is 4,860 tons, with a decrease of 840 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.72%, with an increase of 17.46; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 64.52%, with an increase of 13.65. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1,314 million pieces, with an increase of 11; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 6,025 million pieces, with an increase of 219 [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.95 days, with a decrease of 0.53; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.17 days [2]. Industry News - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels [2]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber), a month - on - month increase of 15% compared with August and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - As of October 22, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber was 33,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The inventory level of production enterprises continued to rise, and that of trading enterprises decreased [2].