瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 23, the domestic methanol-to-olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 91.44%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.97%. The load of individual enterprises in the northwest and east decreased, and the overall olefin industry's start-up declined this week. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price drops, the start-up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease in the short term. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,260 - 2,330 in the short term [2]. - With the support of downstream rigid demand, the inventory of domestic methanol enterprises has decreased this week. At the ports, due to weather and other factors, the unloading of foreign vessels has continued to fall short of expectations, and the提货 volume of the mainstream social warehouses has significantly decreased. The methanol port inventory has slightly increased this week. The expected methanol imports in October are still sufficient, and the port inventory may still rise [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,292 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 31 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was -37 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 1,066,380 lots, a month-on-month decrease of 31,400 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -137,185 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 14,092, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,010 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 220 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was -62 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 31 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 260 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 325 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was -65 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.44 US dollars/million British thermal units, a month-on-month decrease of 0.05 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.7 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 48.52 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.92 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 1.79 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 7.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.4269 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 332,900 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 360,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 500 tons; the methanol enterprise start-up rate was 87.42%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.17 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start-up rate was 40.88%, a month-on-month increase of 6.77 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start-up rate was 5.92%, a month-on-month increase of 0.94 percentage points [2]. - The acetic acid start-up rate was 72.52%, a month-on-month decrease of 10.44 percentage points; the MTBE start-up rate was 63.12%, a month-on-month decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - The olefin start-up rate was 92.39%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the methanol-to-olefins on - paper profit was -985 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 21 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.58%, a month-on-month increase of 0.88 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 17.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.72%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.21 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of October 22, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 360,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 50 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.13%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 215,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.79% [2]. - As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5122 million tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 30,000 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 9,200 tons. The methanol port inventory slightly increased this week [2]. - Recently, the production capacity loss caused by maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the production capacity output of recovery, and the overall output has decreased. The overall pressure on the supply side is not large [2].