瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for three weeks, becoming the second-longest shutdown in history. The two parties remain deadlocked over the upcoming expiration of medical subsidies, and the total U.S. federal government debt has exceeded $38 trillion, providing potential safe-haven support [2]. - The market's expectation of loose policies from Japan's new political party has strengthened, pushing the U.S. dollar to continue to strengthen in the short term, which may continue to suppress the gold price [2]. - Looking ahead, there are many uncertainties in the macro - environment. The London gold price still has strong buying support at the $4000 mark, but subsequent correction risks should be guarded against. The short - term trend of gold and silver will mainly be wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the U.S. CPI data released on Friday. If the CPI is stronger than expected, it may weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts and lead to a further correction in the gold price. The trading range for the SHFE Gold 2512 contract is 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE Gold main contract was 942.28 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.28 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE Silver main contract was 11467 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 63 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of SHFE Gold were 189131 lots, a decrease of 3672 lots; the main contract positions of SHFE Silver were 377229 lots, a decrease of 9004 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 holders of the SHFE Gold main contract were 109168 lots, a decrease of 1528 lots; the net positions of the top 20 holders of the SHFE Silver main contract were 97767 lots, an increase of 135 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 663366 kilograms, a decrease of 28322 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 938 yuan/gram, a decrease of 5.5 yuan; the spot price of silver was 11360 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 57 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SHFE Gold main contract was - 4.28 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.78 yuan; the basis of the SHFE Silver main contract was - 107 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 1052.37 tons, a decrease of 6.29 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15597.61 tons, a decrease of 79.03 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266749 contracts, an increase of 339 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 52276 contracts, an increase of 738 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 33.48%, an increase of 5.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 24.5%, an increase of 3.17 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 31.86%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 31.86%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 22 days, becoming the second - longest shutdown in history. The two parties are deadlocked over medical subsidies, and it may last until November [2]. - U.S. President Trump cancelled his meeting with Russian President Putin in Budapest. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil producer [2]. - India and the U.S. are about to reach a trade agreement, potentially reducing the tariff on Indian goods exported to the U.S. from about 50% to 15% - 16% [2]. - There are signs of a缓和 in international trade relations, and there are rumors that senior Chinese and U.S. leaders will hold tariff negotiations in Malaysia [2].