瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the domestic market, the supply side shows that in mid - October 2025, the new cotton picking and selling progress in Xinjiang is faster than last year, but recent cold and snowy weather will slow down the picking. The new cotton price is around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the cost is still supported. The demand side indicates that the spinning mills' operating rate is low, and the peak season is weak, so the restocking enthusiasm is expected to be low. Overall, the large - scale acquisition and processing of new - season cotton bring significant hedging demand, with upward pressure and cost - based support below. Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,575 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 19,820 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 117,362 lots, down 10,259 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 139 lots, down 59 lots. - Cotton main contract positions were 599,556 lots, up 6,744 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions were 23,684 lots, up 449 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 2,526 lots, down 39 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 6 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) was 14,784 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,106 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. - China's yarn price index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,213 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,716 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton imports were 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, unchanged. - The profit from imported cotton was 733 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. - The monthly cloth output was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 8.07%, down 1.26%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 8.07%, down 1.22%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.57%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.98%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton in the 2025/26 season was 4,331,712 bales, totaling 978,606 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.07%. The cumulative notarized inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 961,248 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.69%. - ICE cotton futures fell on Wednesday due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which delayed the release of USDA reports and left the market without clear trading guidance. The December ICE cotton futures contract closed down 0.68 cents, or 1.06%, at 63.74 cents per pound [2].