沪铜产业日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract oscillates strongly, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply of copper concentrates persists, TC fees remain in the negative range, and overseas mine disturbances still impact, keeping ore prices firm. On the supply side, due to many maintenance operations and tight supplies of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be limited. Additionally, the price of smelting by - product sulfuric acid shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and potentially reducing the operating rate, leading to a gradual contraction of domestic refined copper supply. On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are hesitant due to high prices, adopting a cautious wait - and - see procurement strategy, resulting in a weak spot market trading sentiment. High copper prices suppress downstream demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.25, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0273, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market and a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis with expanding red bars. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,070 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,800 dollars/ton, up 137 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract is 70 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 248,626 lots, up 15,265 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 20,115 lots, down 2,529 lots. The LME copper inventory is 136,850 tons, down 300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange cathode copper inventory is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 9,275 tons, down 525 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange cathode copper warrants are 36,048 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 85,490 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 85,465 yuan/ton, up 410 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 40 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 580 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 6.36 dollars/ton, up 23.86 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.20 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 40.97 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.61 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 75,730 yuan/metal ton, up 410 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 76,430 yuan/metal ton, up 410 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.60 million tons, down 3.50 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 58,190 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 71,850 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 650 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.66%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.94%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 16.34%, down 0.0124. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.25, down 0.0273 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The new development concept of innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing is the "ballast stone" and "power source" for China's economic ship to foster new opportunities in crises and open new situations in changes. China should develop new - quality productivity according to local conditions and enhance the support capacity of the modern industrial system for high - quality development. Trump expects to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC informal leaders' meeting next week, but the meeting may be cancelled. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and the two leaders maintain close communication. The "Energy - Saving and New - Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" is released, aiming for a new - energy passenger vehicle penetration rate of over 85% by 2040, with BEV accounting for 80%, and the full popularization of L4 - level intelligent connected vehicles and the entry of L5 - level intelligent connected vehicles into the market. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Natural Resources says that the total output value of China's geographic information industry in 2025 will reach nearly one trillion yuan, and efforts should be made to strengthen the construction of spatio - temporal information infrastructure and open data resources related to people's livelihood. The US government shutdown has lasted 22 days, and it may last until November and exceed the 35 - day record in Trump's first term [2]