瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 23, the JM2601 contract closed at 1258.5, up 5.14%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. Due to political unrest in Mongolia affecting port clearance vehicle numbers and supply - side disturbances, the market sentiment was positive. The mine - end开工率 declined due to safety inspections, with neutral inventory, while the coal washery开工率 increased for two consecutive weeks, and inventory was expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range volatile operation [2]. - On October 23, the J2601 contract closed at 1768.0, up 4.21%. The coke price increase was implemented on October 1. In terms of the macro - aspect, the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia would include four companies involved in circumventing Western sanctions in the Chinese oil industry. In terms of fundamentals, the hot metal output this period was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons, with high - level fluctuations. The total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range volatile operation driven by costs [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1258.50 yuan/ton, up 49.00; J主力合约收盘价 was 1768.00 yuan/ton, up 58.50 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 939022.00 hands, up 106904.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 49180.00 hands, up 1686.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 47469.00 hands, up 30131.00; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 3935.00 hands, up 19.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 66.50 yuan/ton, down 8.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 128.00 yuan/ton, down 17.00 [2]. - The JM warehouse receipt was 100.00 (down 100.00); the J warehouse receipt was 2070.00 (unchanged) [2]. - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal increased by 6.00 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 155.00 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 [2]. - The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal was 1710.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The JM主力合约基差 was 191.50 yuan/ton, down 49.00; the J主力合约基差 was - 48.00 yuan/ton, down 58.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washeries was 26.70 million tons, up 0.60; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washeries was 289.60 million tons, down 0.80 [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washeries was 0.37%, up 0.01; the monthly raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.00 million tons, down 5.10 [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 488.16 million tons, down 19.31; the weekly inventory of coking coal at independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 997.37 million tons, up 38.31; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 252.65 million tons, up 0.06; the weekly inventory of coke at independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 57.29 million tons, down 6.55 [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal at 247 steel mills nationwide was 788.32 million tons, up 7.19; the weekly inventory of coke at 247 sample steel mills was 639.44 million tons, down 11.38 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 12.90 days, up 0.24; the weekly available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.19 days, down 0.23 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, up 0.05 [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 13.00 yuan/ton, down 22.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.25%, unchanged; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.31%, down 0.22 [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Some open - pit coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing stopped production due to slope treatment and resource restructuring. With stricter environmental inspections, the shipment of operating coal mines was restricted, but the impact on output was small. The safety inspection in Qipanjing affected production, reducing the supply of raw coking coal in the Wuhai market. The online auction of coal showed a premium, and the price of clean coal was planned to increase [2]. - Political unrest in Mongolia affected port clearance vehicle numbers, causing supply - side disturbances and positive market sentiment [2]. - The EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia would include four companies involved in circumventing Western sanctions in the Chinese oil industry [2].