瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to be ample and demand to decline, making it difficult for prices to rise. It's recommended to short - term buy the soda ash main contract on dips [2]. - For glass, it's expected to continue weak and volatile. It's also recommended to short - term buy the glass main contract on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1235 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1108 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference is 127 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1392523 lots, up 2060 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1658907 lots, down 891 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest is - 243380, down 1363; glass top 20 net open interest is - 197772, up 8605 [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 9984 tons, down 218 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 455 tons, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 55 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; glass basis is - 56 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - The spread between January and May glass contracts is - 148, down 1; the spread between January and May soda ash contracts is - 83, up 2 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash price is 1155 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash price is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash price is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash price is 1145 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheet price is 1056 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; Central China glass sheet price is 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash plant operating rate is 84.93%, down 3.48%; float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.35%, up 0.34% [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Glass in - production capacity is 16.12 million tons/year, up 0.05 million tons; glass in - production line number is 226, up 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 171.07 million tons, up 1.02 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6427.6 million heavy boxes, up 145.2 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area is 453990000 square meters, up 55979900 square meters; cumulative real estate completion area is 311290000 square meters, up 34354600 square meters [2]. - Glass downstream procurement maintains rigid demand, buying on dips. Most enterprises' production and sales are poor, and market demand is relatively weak [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 666130000 heavy boxes, up 23370000 heavy boxes or 3.64% week - on - week, increasing for 3 weeks after the holiday, reaching a 3 - month high, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 16.99%, and inventory days reaching 28.3 days, up 1 day [2]. - The central government arranges 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits to local governments. For soda ash, domestic operating rate is declining, but it is at a relatively high level and shows an upward trend. After the summer centralized maintenance, industry operating load is gradually increasing, and soda ash output is continuously rising. For glass, the number of cold - repaired production lines is unchanged, and overall output remains at the bottom [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be loose, demand will decrease, and prices are unlikely to rise. Today's price bottomed out and rebounded due to stabilized market sentiment. Focus on market trading opportunities after the Fed cuts interest rates [2]. - Glass: Supply and demand remain at the bottom. Real estate is still sluggish. If the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real estate demand; otherwise, it will continue to drag down glass demand. The market will fluctuate around demand, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged [2].