瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply scale of polysilicon remains large, with some companies reducing production but the amplitude falling short of expectations, leading to continued accumulation of social inventory. The number of operating companies has increased, further intensifying supply - side pressure. Demand is relatively weak, with the downstream photovoltaic industry chain having low demand. Component tender prices are continuously falling, causing delays in centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the overall industry gross profit margin is narrowing. High inventory will exert significant downward pressure on prices next week if supply pressure continues to increase. With the expectation of the conference, polysilicon prices have risen and the increase is expected to last for some time. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 50,760 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the main contract position is 45,407 lots, down 3,609 lots; the spread between November - December of polysilicon is - 2,395 yuan, down 35 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,055 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 53,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis of polysilicon is 2,285 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feed polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,705 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,290 units, down 19,491,370 units; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,733,770 units, down 6,706,520 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/unit, up 0.06 US dollars/unit; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the Silicon Industry Association, there are 11 polysilicon companies in operation this week. Based on the production plans of polysilicon companies in the fourth quarter, some production capacities in the southwest region are expected to gradually undergo maintenance and production cuts after entering the dry season in November. It is expected that October will be the peak production month of the year, and production will gradually decline from November to December. It is estimated that the annual domestic polysilicon output in 2025 will be about 1.34 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 27.3% [2]