芳烃橡胶早报-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, near - term TA partial device load increases, polyester load stabilizes, inventory slightly accumulates, and basis weakens. PX domestic operation rate drops. TA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, but with long - term low processing fees, additional maintenance should be monitored, and the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, near - term domestic maintenance and restarts coexist, load slightly rises, and port inventory accumulates. EG will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage, but there may be negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the selling put opportunity near the coal - based cost [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation is stable, production and sales improve, and inventory slightly decreases. The overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Data Changes: From October 17 to October 23, crude oil prices remained unchanged, PTA spot price increased by 55 to 4425, polyester profit decreased by 89 to 29, and inventory (warehouses + valid forecasts) increased by 2203 to 50945 [2]. - Market Situation (Weekly): Near - term TA partial device load increases, polyester load is stable, inventory slightly accumulates, basis weakens, and spot processing fee remains low. PX domestic operation rate drops, overseas partial maintenance occurs, PXN expands, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia expands [2]. - Outlook: Polyester shows no unexpected performance, TA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage. With long - term low processing fees, additional maintenance should be monitored, and the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. MEG - Data Changes: From October 17 to October 23, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged, MEG external price increased by 7 to 491, MEG domestic price increased by 66 to 4173, and coal - based MEG profit increased by 66 to 1 [2]. - Market Situation (Weekly): Near - term domestic maintenance and restarts coexist, load slightly rises, overseas maintenance occurs, port inventory accumulates slightly, basis is stable, and coal - based efficiency and price ratio contract further [2]. - Outlook: EG stock operation returns to a high level, and with new device production, it enters a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, there may be negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the selling put opportunity near the coal - based cost [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Data Changes: From October 17 to October 23, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 25 to 6390, short - fiber profit remained unchanged at 235, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 10 to 8185 [2]. - Market Situation (Weekly): Near - term device operation is stable, operation rate remains at 94.3%, production and sales improve, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increases, and both raw material and finished - product inventory decrease, with efficiency slightly improving [2]. - Outlook: The overall operation rate and finished - product inventory of polyester yarn do not significantly increase, short - fiber exports maintain high growth, operation rate remains high with good spot efficiency, overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Data Changes: From October 17 to October 23, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber remained unchanged at 1825, the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 750 to 14450, and the price of Thai cup - lump increased by 1 to 50.5. The weekly change of RU main contract price increased by 345 to 15245, and NR main contract price increased by 115 to 12430 [2]. - Market Situation (Daily): The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping [2]. - Strategy: Wait and see [2] Styrene - Data Changes: From October 17 to October 23, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, the price of styrene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) increased by 100 to 6950 [5]. - Market Situation: The price of raw materials and some products shows certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of some products remains stable or changes slightly [5]