LPG早报-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PG main contract rose significantly due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. Despite large pressure on spot supply and a sharp drop in PG basis turning negative, the futures market may not decline significantly in the short - term under the influence of tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances because of concerns about future supply. There is high inventory pressure and short - term supply pressure, but chemical demand provides support and combustion demand is expected to pick up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Thursday, the price of civil LPG rebounded. In East China, it was 4267 (+8), in Shandong 4340 (+90), and in South China 4400 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4440 (+50). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 89 (-21), and the November - December spread was 122 (-22). FEI and CP increased to 494.5 (+16.5) and 456 (+9) dollars/ton respectively [4]. Weekly Views - The PG main contract rose significantly due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was - 20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The overseas market prices dropped sharply. The FEI monthly spread was - 10 dollars (+5), and the CP monthly spread was - 4 dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window remained open at - 71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II resuming production, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises are expected to increase production in the coming week [4].