燃料油早报-20251024

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level. The near - month spread weakened, the basis weakened month - on - month, the EW spread continued to weaken, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking weakened month - on - month but was at a historical low year - on - year. The month - spread weakened slightly, and the LU internal - external spread dropped to 7 - 8 US dollars. The basis stabilized in the second half of the week. From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory increased, at a historical high year - on - year. The floating storage inventory stabilized after destocking, also at a high level year - on - year. The residue oil in the ARA region increased slightly, with inventory at a historical low for the same period. The EIA residue oil inventory increased slightly at a low level. The inventory in Fujairah increased month - on - month, at a low level year - on - year. The high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly this week. Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, but the cracking is supported by raw material procurement, with limited short - term downside. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern. The FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range recently, and the end - point of the 01 contract is bearish. This week, the LU futures remained weak. In the fourth quarter, the overseas low - sulfur market has a short - selling pattern on rallies, and the internal - external spread should focus on quota usage [3][6] Group 3: Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the 3.5% HSF O swap M1 in Rotterdam increased from 367.92 to 395.67, a change of 21.78; the 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 393.96 to 420.75, a change of 18.09; the HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 2.92 to - 2.95, a change of 0.17; the 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 607.89 to 677.93, a change of 45.67; the VLSFO - GO M1 changed from - 213.93 to - 257.18, a change of - 27.58; the VLSFO - H SFO M1 changed from 22.57 to 25.08, a change of 2.48; the VLSFO - H SFO M1 spread changed from 26.04 to 25.08, a change of - 3.69 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 359.76 to 384.53, a change of 17.57; the Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 369.96 to 392.53, a change of 17.57; the Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 420.01 to 442.26, a change of 10.97; the Singapore GO M1 increased from 80.60 to 88.08, a change of 4.36; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed from - 3.71 to - 3.34, a change of 0.76; the Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed from - 176.43 to - 209.53, a change of - 21.29 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the FOB 380cst in Singapore increased from 361.29 to 384.00, a change of 19.30; the FOB VLSFO increased from 421.95 to 438.50, a change of 11.20; the 380 basis changed from - 0.65 to - 0.73, a change of 0.73; the high - sulfur internal - external spread remained unchanged at 8.9; the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 6.8 to 6.9, a change of 0.1 [2] Domestic FU Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the FU 01 increased from 2627 to 2752, a change of 61; the FU 05 increased from 2600 to 2701, a change of 53; the FU 09 increased from 2560 to 2640, a change of 44; the FU 01 - 05 spread increased from 27 to 51, a change of 8; the FU 05 - 09 spread increased from 40 to 61, a change of 9; the FU 09 - 01 spread changed from - 67 to - 112, a change of - 17 [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the LU 01 increased from 3064 to 3193, a change of 57; the LU 05 increased from 3099 to 3220, a change of 62; the LU 09 increased from 3110 to 3234, a change of 59; the LU 01 - 05 spread changed from - 35 to - 27, a change of - 5; the LU 05 - 09 spread changed from - 11 to - 14, a change of 3; the LU 09 - 01 spread changed from 46 to 41, a change of 2 [3]